1st World Congress on Logic, Chance, and Money

Speaker: Luis Mazas Niznik, Independent Researcher

This talk explores the interplay between human logical reasoning and the philosophical concepts of determinism, indeterminism, and chance, using the game of roulette as an analogy to explain the unpredictability of certain events, like making money through gambling. It begins by examining how probability in roulette doesn’t guarantee a specific outcome in the short term, despite mathematical models suggesting long-term predictability.

The talk argues that, while probability helps quantify chances, various physical factors (such as the weight of the ball or the intensity of the throw) and unknown variables make outcomes difficult to predict. I distinguish between ontological chance (inherent randomness in the universe) and epistemological chance (randomness stemming from human ignorance). While determinism claims that everything is predetermined by prior events, chance reflects our inability to control or know all influencing factors.

The talk further explores the limits of human understanding and logical reasoning, emphasizing that infinite variables influence events, making complete prediction impossible. It also touches on the idea of a superior being, such as God, in monotheistic religions, who could foresee all events, or the potential of future technology (AI) to achieve such foresight.

Ultimately, I conclude that while some events appear predetermined, most escape our control due to the complexity of the universe. This randomness, or chance, is more epistemological than ontological, and humans align with determinism to avoid the existential discomfort of logical uncertainty. However, the ultimate mastery of infinite variables remains beyond human reach.